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The Perils of Projecting Population


The UN Population Division recently estimated that our planet will grow to 9.15 billion people by 2050. Yet this medium-variant projection is just one of several possible scenarios released in this latest round of number crunching. The low- and high-variant projections--7.96 billion and 10.5 billion, respectively--could instead become reality, given slight shifts in global fertility rates. In the May/June 2009 issue of World Watch magazine -, Sean Peoples of ECSP and Elizabeth Leahy of Population Action International compare three of the leading population forecasts and find that tiny variations in assumptions can generate significant differences. [more] -


aliĝngix's picture


It's good to have a marign to fall in, but these numbers...I wonder if they can narrow them down at all accurately?



Well Aliĝngix, we really can't tell about the facts and accuracy, i guess the Experts know best and what ever fundamentals they use to arrive at such verdict we are only to work with their declarations.

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