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GESTION ET PREVENTION DES CATASTROPHES

A l’heure où le monde se penche sérieusement sur le développement international, la gestion du risque prend de plus en plus d’importance. . Cette vision devrait contribuer à une gestion de risque plus efficace (et efficiente) et par conséquent à une efficacité accrue des interventions de développement.

La gestion du risque permet, de par son essence, de limiter l’impact négatif qui entoure les interventions et de favoriser au maximum l’atteinte des résultats attendus. La gestion du risque en tant que telle démontre être à la fois essentielle et vitale pour la gestion des résultats de développement. Le concept de la gestion du risque n’est pas une nouveauté en soi. Admettre que le risque nous entoure et qu’il est en substance inévitable, fait que la gestion du risque n’est pas trop différente de la gestion des autres aspects d’un programme ou d’une organisation.
Toutes les décisions prises au sommet entraînent avec elles des risques de toutes sortes. La gestion du risque commence, lors de l’établissement du budget, par l’élaboration et le choix des interventions (projet, programme, stratégies) et se termine par une évaluation finale pour garantir la réalisation efficace et pertinente des résultats. C’est la raison pour laquelle il est préférable de considérer la gestion du risque comme une partie intégrante d’une bonne pratique de gestion et non pas comme une activité séparée.
1 Hubbard, D. (2009) p. 46.
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Cette attention exacerbée portée à la gestion du risque dans la GRD, peut fort bien être expliquée par le besoin de produire et d’être responsable de résultats concrets et clairs, alors que la nature des interventions de développement devient moins prévisible et que les partenaires au développement s’éloignent délibérément de ce degré relativement élevé de contrôle.
Effectivement, la gestion du risque empiète au moins sur quatre des cinq piliers de base de la GRD : évaluation et suivi, responsabilisation (rendre compte) et partenariats, planification et budgétisation et statistiques laissant le « leadership » ouvert au débat.
Il est vrai que la gestion du risque réserve une grande attention au Suivi & l’Evaluation, alors qu’au niveau de la planification et de la budgétisation l’accent est mis sur l’identification et l’évaluation systématique de tous les risques dans l’atteinte des produits, des résultats et de l’impact.
Toutefois, il est impossible de définir ne fût-ce qu’une « bonne pratique » ou un standard de gestion du risque des interventions au développement. Cela est dû au fait que les méthodes, les définitions et les objectifs varient considérablement et intrinsèquement en fonction du contexte dans lequel la gestion du risque est appliquée. Il en va de même dans le secteur privé où plusieurs standards ont été développés au fil des ans.
Quelques caractéristiques-clé de la gestion du risque
Utilisation: Elle assiste les managers et les décisionnaires politiques dans le processus d’identification et de contrôle de l'exposition au risque d'une intervention ou une activité. Elle est aussi utile dans la communication sur les risques, soit en soulevant l’intérêt de ceux-ci, soit en permettant le déclenchement d’une intervention rapide.
Force: La force est l’évaluation systématique des risques liés aux activités prévues en termes de probabilité (d’une menace ou d’un événement qui se passe réellement) et de l’impact qui en découle. Cela rend les choix avertis de prise de risques possibles, et écarte la tendance générale consistant à ne pas accepter l’implication du risque.
Les risques identifiés peuvent être confiés à l'individu ou l'entité le mieux placé pour les traiter de sorte qu’une action rapide puisse être entreprise si nécessaire.
Mesure du risque: Un risque est généralement mesuré en impact fois (x) sa probabilité. Certains types de risques, comme les risques financiers par exemple, peuvent être évalués en termes numéraires. Mais bon nombre d’autres risques sont évalués en termes subjectifs. En outre, il faut aussi prendre en considération toutes les interdépendances des autres facteurs qui tombent hors de la portée immédiate de l’analyse du risque.
Limitations: Cela signifie que la gestion du risque dépend en grande partie des estimations et des décisions humaines qui, par conséquent, manquent souvent de cohérence. Lorsque, dans une situation précise, les connaissances et les expériences appliquées sont insuffisantes, un risque peut passer complètement inaperçu ou, s’il est détecté, son importance peut être sous-estimée.
De plus, un temps précieux peut être perdu si on se concentre sur des risques qui ne sont pas correctement évalués ni convenablement déterminés et qui en fin de compte ont peu de chance de se produire. Consacrer trop de temps à évaluer et gérer des risques à faible probabilité
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d’occurrence ne fait que détourner des ressources qui pourraient être utilisées de manière plus bénéfiques ailleurs. Prioriser le processus de gestion du risque de manière trop élevée peut entraver la finalisation d’un projet au sein d’une organisation voire même empêcher d’en démarrer un. Ceci est particulièrement vrai si tout travail est suspendu en attendant que le processus de gestion du risque soit considéré comme terminé.
Conditions préalables : les conditions suivantes sont porteuses de réussite:
- Un engagement démontré à la responsabilité publique;
- Des interférences politiques limitées dans les décisions de gestion;
- Une structure motivante encourageant les fonctionnaires à travailler dans l’intérêt public;
- Un degré de stabilité au sein du personnel.
Les aspects culturels :
Des études internationales ont démontré que les différences de culture, aussi bien nationales qu’organisationnelles, sont d’une grande importance. Certaines sociétés ou organisations évitent à tout prix l’incertitude. Le fait d’éviter l’incertitude traduit la manière dont les membres d’une société se sentent menacés par les situations incertaines ou inconnues. Les sociétés dans lesquelles l’incertitude est vivement rejetée auront tendance à éviter ou à empêcher l’existence du risque. Les sociétés qui ne rejettent que faiblement l’incertitude promeuvent très souvent la prise du risque et les activités qui stimulent le risque y sont fort appréciées.
Les organisations qui évitent fortement l’incertitude sont plutôt orientées vers l’application de processus et fonctionnent selon un système normatif fermé. Les gestionnaires doivent avoir toutes les réponses, ont un besoin physique de règles, aiment travailler durement, résistent à l’innovation, sont motivés par la sécurité et l’estime ou le sentiment d’intégrité, et croient aux experts et à la spécialisation.
Par contre, les organisations évitant moins l’incertitude, sont plus axées sur les résultats et fonctionnent comme un système pragmatique ouvert. Les gestionnaires peuvent dire qu’ils ne connaissent pas la réponse ; il ne devrait pas y avoir plus de règles que le strict nécessaire, ils travaillent dur uniquement s’il le faut, sont tolérants face aux idées et comportements peu habituels et nouveaux, recherchent la motivation dans la réussite, l’estime ou l’intégrité, croient aux généralités et au bon sens.
Ces dimensions culturelles sont bien entendu cruciales dans la Gestion pour les Résultats de Développement en général et la gestion du risque en particulier.
Capacité : Un autre facteur significatif semble être le niveau de capacité, plus particulièrement aux niveaux de gestion intermédiaires et inférieurs, à identifier et à analyser les risques ainsi que celle à gérer convenablement le risque correspondant.
Gestion des risques
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Principes de base de la gestion des risques
Suite à ce qui a été mentionné plus haut, la gestion du risque devrait faire partie intégrante de la Gestion pour les Résultats de Développement. En matière de gestion efficace du risque, une série de phases bien ciblées sont développées pour permettre une meilleure prise de décision face aux risques, appelée aussi Processus de Risque.
La première phase de ce processus consiste à identifier les risques et réaliser une Analyse de Risque. Cela implique l’identification et l’évaluation systématique de tous les risques pouvant entraver l’atteinte des résultats. L’Analyse des Risques est effectuée au cours de la phase de planification, encore dénommée la phase de conception de l’interve

English translation by community member Camila

Disaster and Prevention Management

At a time in which the world seriously studies international development, risk management becomes more and more important. This vision should contribute to a more effective (and efficient) risk management and therefore to an increased effectiveness of development intervention.

Risk management allows, in its essence, to limit the negative impact that surrounds the interventions and to utmost promote the achievement of expected results. Risk management as such proves to be both essential and vital for the management of development results. The concept of risk management is not a new phenomenon. Admitting that the risk surrounds us and is inevitable, makes risk management not too different from managing other aspects of a program or organization.
All decisions taken at the summit bring with them risks of all kinds. Risk management begins at a budget, by the development and the choice of interventions (project, program, strategies) and ends with a final evaluation to ensure effective implementation and relevant results. This is why it is best to consider risk management as an integral part of good management practice and not as a separate activity.
1 Hubbard, D. (2009) p. 46
Risk management
Risk management
Page 2 (12)
This heightened attention to risk management in the MDR, may well be explained by the need to produce and to be responsible for concrete and clear results while the nature of development interventions becomes less predictable and development partners deliberately farther themselves away from the relatively high degree of control.
Indeed, risk management infringes upon at least four of the five basic pillars of the MDR: assessment and monitoring, accountability (account) and partnerships, planning and budgeting, and statistics, leaving the “leadership” open to debate.
It is true that the risk management reserves great attention to Monitoring & Assessment, whereas at the level of planning and budgeting, the emphasis is placed on the systematic identification and assessment of all risks in the achieved outputs, outcomes and impact.
However, it is impossible to even define a "good practice", or a standard risk management of development interventions. This is due to the fact that the methods, definitions and goals vary widely and intrinsically depend on the context in which risk management is applied. It's the same in the private sector where several standards have been developed over the years.
Some characteristics- key to risk management
Use: It assists managers and political decision-makers in the identification process and assists in controlling the exposition at risk of an intervention or an activity. It is also useful in risk communication, either by raising its interest, or by allowing the initiation of a rapid response.
Strength: The strength is the systematic risk assessment of planned activities in terms of probability (of a threat or an actual event) and the resulting impact. This makes informed decisions possible risks, and overcomes the general tendency not to accept the risk involved.
The identified risks may be assigned to the individual or entity best positioned to deal with them so that prompt action can be taken if necessary.
Measure of risk: A risk is generally measured by its impact times (x) its probability. Certain types of risks, such as financial risks, for example, can be measured in cash terms. But many other risks are evaluated in subjective terms. In addition, we must also take into account all the interdependencies of other factors that fall outside the immediate scope of the risk analysis.
Limitations: This means that the risk management depends largely on estimates and human decisions, therefore, they are often inconsistent. In a specific situation, knowledge and applied experience are insufficient, a risk may go completely unnoticed or, if detected, its importance may be underestimated.
In addition, valuable time can be lost if we focus on risks that are not properly evaluated or properly identified and that ultimately are unlikely to occur. Spending too much time assessing and managing risks to low probability outcomes
Risk management
Risk management
Page 3 (12)
of occurrence only diverts resources that could be used more beneficially elsewhere. Prioritizing the process of risk management too highly may impede project completion within an organization or may even prevent its commencement. This is especially true if all work is suspended until the risk management process is considered complete.
Prerequisites: The following conditions are carriers of success:
- Demonstrate commitment to public accountability;
- Management decisions are limited from political interference;
- Have a motivating atmosphere that encourages staff to work in the public interest;
- A degree of stability within the staff.
Cultural aspects:
International studies have shown that differences in culture, both national and organizational, are of great importance. Some companies or organizations avoid at all cost, uncertainty. Avoiding uncertainty reflects how members of a society feel threatened by uncertain or unknown situations. Companies in which uncertainty is strongly rejected tend to avoid or prevent the existence of risk. Companies that only weakly reject uncertainty often promote risk-taking, and the activities that stimulate risk are much appreciated.
Organizations that avoid uncertainty are strongly focused towards the application process and operate on a closed normative system. Managers need to have all the answers, have a physical need for rules, such as working hard, resisting innovation, are motivated by security and the esteem or sense of integrity, and believe experts and those with specialization.
In contrast, organizations avoiding less uncertainty are more focused on results and pragmatic function as an open system. Managers can say they do not know the answer, there should not be more rules than what is strictly necessary, they work hard only if necessary, are tolerant of ideas and of some unusual and new behaviors, seek motivation in success, esteem or integrity, believe in the general and common sense.
These cultural dimensions are of course crucial for the Management of the Development Results in general, and in risk management in particular.
Capacity: Another significant factor appears to be the level of capacity, particularly at the middle and lower management, to identify and analyze the risks as well as to properly manage the corresponding risks.
Risk management
Risk management
Page 4 (12)
Basic principles for risk management
Following what has been mentioned above, risk management should be an integral part of the Management for Development Results. For effective risk management, a series of targeted phases are developed to enable better decision making due to risks, also called Risk Process.
The first phase of this process is to identify risks and implement a Risk Analysis. This involves the systematic identification and assessment of all risks that may impede the achievement of results. The Risk Analysis is performed during the planning phase, still referred to as the design phase of the intervener.

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Translation

Disaster and Prevention Management

At a time in which the world seriously studies international development, risk management becomes more and more important. This vision should contribute to a more effective (and efficient) risk management and therefore to an increased effectiveness of development intervention.

Risk management allows, in its essence, to limit the negative impact that surrounds the interventions and to utmost promote the achievement of expected results. Risk management as such proves to be both essential and vital for the management of development results. The concept of risk management is not a new phenomenon. Admitting that the risk surrounds us and is inevitable, makes risk management not too different from managing other aspects of a program or organization.
All decisions taken at the summit bring with them risks of all kinds. Risk management begins at a budget, by the development and the choice of interventions (project, program, strategies) and ends with a final evaluation to ensure effective implementation and relevant results. This is why it is best to consider risk management as an integral part of good management practice and not as a separate activity.
1 Hubbard, D. (2009) p. 46
Risk management
Risk management
Page 2 (12)
This heightened attention to risk management in the MDR, may well be explained by the need to produce and to be responsible for concrete and clear results while the nature of development interventions becomes less predictable and development partners deliberately farther themselves away from the relatively high degree of control.
Indeed, risk management infringes upon at least four of the five basic pillars of the MDR: assessment and monitoring, accountability (account) and partnerships, planning and budgeting, and statistics, leaving the “leadership” open to debate.
It is true that the risk management reserves great attention to Monitoring & Assessment, whereas at the level of planning and budgeting, the emphasis is placed on the systematic identification and assessment of all risks in the achieved outputs, outcomes and impact.
However, it is impossible to even define a "good practice", or a standard risk management of development interventions. This is due to the fact that the methods, definitions and goals vary widely and intrinsically depend on the context in which risk management is applied. It's the same in the private sector where several standards have been developed over the years.
Some characteristics- key to risk management
Use: It assists managers and political decision-makers in the identification process and assists in controlling the exposition at risk of an intervention or an activity. It is also useful in risk communication, either by raising its interest, or by allowing the initiation of a rapid response.
Strength: The strength is the systematic risk assessment of planned activities in terms of probability (of a threat or an actual event) and the resulting impact. This makes informed decisions possible risks, and overcomes the general tendency not to accept the risk involved.
The identified risks may be assigned to the individual or entity best positioned to deal with them so that prompt action can be taken if necessary.
Measure of risk: A risk is generally measured by its impact times (x) its probability. Certain types of risks, such as financial risks, for example, can be measured in cash terms. But many other risks are evaluated in subjective terms. In addition, we must also take into account all the interdependencies of other factors that fall outside the immediate scope of the risk analysis.
Limitations: This means that the risk management depends largely on estimates and human decisions, therefore, they are often inconsistent. In a specific situation, knowledge and applied experience are insufficient, a risk may go completely unnoticed or, if detected, its importance may be underestimated.
In addition, valuable time can be lost if we focus on risks that are not properly evaluated or properly identified and that ultimately are unlikely to occur. Spending too much time assessing and managing risks to low probability outcomes
Risk management
Risk management
Page 3 (12)
of occurrence only diverts resources that could be used more beneficially elsewhere. Prioritizing the process of risk management too highly may impede project completion within an organization or may even prevent its commencement. This is especially true if all work is suspended until the risk management process is considered complete.
Prerequisites: The following conditions are carriers of success:
- Demonstrate commitment to public accountability;
- Management decisions are limited from political interference;
- Have a motivating atmosphere that encourages staff to work in the public interest;
- A degree of stability within the staff.
Cultural aspects:
International studies have shown that differences in culture, both national and organizational, are of great importance. Some companies or organizations avoid at all cost, uncertainty. Avoiding uncertainty reflects how members of a society feel threatened by uncertain or unknown situations. Companies in which uncertainty is strongly rejected tend to avoid or prevent the existence of risk. Companies that only weakly reject uncertainty often promote risk-taking, and the activities that stimulate risk are much appreciated.
Organizations that avoid uncertainty are strongly focused towards the application process and operate on a closed normative system. Managers need to have all the answers, have a physical need for rules, such as working hard, resisting innovation, are motivated by security and the esteem or sense of integrity, and believe experts and those with specialization.
In contrast, organizations avoiding less uncertainty are more focused on results and pragmatic function as an open system. Managers can say they do not know the answer, there should not be more rules than what is strictly necessary, they work hard only if necessary, are tolerant of ideas and of some unusual and new behaviors, seek motivation in success, esteem or integrity, believe in the general and common sense.
These cultural dimensions are of course crucial for the Management of the Development Results in general, and in risk management in particular.
Capacity: Another significant factor appears to be the level of capacity, particularly at the middle and lower management, to identify and analyze the risks as well as to properly manage the corresponding risks.
Risk management
Risk management
Page 4 (12)
Basic principles for risk management
Following what has been mentioned above, risk management should be an integral part of the Management for Development Results. For effective risk management, a series of targeted phases are developed to enable better decision making due to risks, also called Risk Process.
The first phase of this process is to identify risks and implement a Risk Analysis. This involves the systematic identification and assessment of all risks that may impede the achievement of results. The Risk Analysis is performed during the planning phase, still referred to as the design phase of the intervener.

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